RRV Flood Outlook
The chances of major flooding in the Red River Valley this Spring increased slightly thanks to this week’s storm. According to the National Weather Service the March 4th event added nearly an inch of snow water in much of the basin. Snow depths range from six to twelve inches in the central Red River Valley to two feet in northern and southern regions. NWS Hydrologist Mike Lukes says despite the uptick we’ve seen worse scenarios.
The outlook suggests there is an 88-percent chance of major flooding in the Fargo area but only an eleven-percent shot for Grand Forks / East Grand Forks. The best guess for a crest in Greater Grand Forks (50-50) is around 41 feet. That’s up about a foot-and-a-half since the last outlook two weeks ago.
PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERAGE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 3/11/2013 - 6/9/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS S PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 10.0 12.0 14.0 : >95 51 >95 24 75 12
HICKSON 30.0 34.0 38.0 : 93 16 48 8 <5 <5
FARGO 18.0 25.0 30.0 : >95 69 >95 30 88 19
HALSTAD 26.0 32.0 37.5 : 91 30 40 14 9 6
GRAND FORKS 28.0 40.0 46.0 : >95 54 59 30 11 9
OSLO 26.0 30.0 36.0 : >95 59 >95 51 22 17
DRAYTON 32.0 38.0 42.0 : >95 41 75 30 11 11
PEMBINA 39.0 44.0 49.0 : >95 46 90 40 53 19
...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...
VALID FROM MARCH 11, 2013 TO JUNE 9, 2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 12.8 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.3 17.1 17.6
HICKSON 29.5 30.5 32.1 33.9 35.4 36.6 37.5
FARGO 28.3 29.9 31.8 33.8 35.2 37.1 38.2
HALSTAD 25.2 27.5 28.6 30.8 34.2 37.8 39.1
GRAND FORKS 33.6 35.6 38.5 41.0 43.4 47.1 50.0
OSLO 33.1 33.8 34.4 35.1 36.0 37.6 38.7
DRAYTON 32.7 33.8 38.4 40.1 40.8 42.6 43.6
PEMBINA 43.2 44.4 46.7 49.3 50.7 52.9 53.3