Flood Outlook
Recent storms have raised snowpack levels in the Red River Valley increasing the risk of Spring flooding. Most of the additional snow and associated water equivalent is located in the southern part of the basin and further north near the Canadian border. Greg Gust of the NWS office in Grand Forks says the risk of moderate to major flooding is on the rise. Fargo has a 79-percent chance of major flooding while Grand Forks / East Grand Forks sits at six-percent. Gust says there are some positives in that river flows remain low. The best guess crest for Grand Forks is around 39 feet. fFood stage is 28.
REDRIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID FEBRUARY 25, 2013 - MAY 26, 2013
DEPARTURE
OUTLOOK FLOOD PERCENT FROMNORMAL
LOCATION STAGES* MINOR MOD MAJOR AT FS**
-------- -------- ----- --- ----- ----------
MAINSTEMREDRIVER...
WAHPETON, ND 10/12/14 >95% >95% 64% +50%
HICKSON,ND 10/12/14 >95% >95% 64% +66%
FARGO,ND 18/25/30 >95% >95% 79% +29%
HALSTAD,MN 26/32/37.5 87% 30% 8% +78%
GRAND FORKS,ND 28/40/46 >95% 45% 6% +42%
OSLO,MN 26/30/36 >95% >95% 19% +36%
DRAYTON,ND 32/38/42 >95% 62% 8% +49%
PEMBINA, ND 39/44/49 >95% 80% 40%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MAINSTEM RED RIVER LOCATIONS:
VALID 2/25/2013 - 5/26/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
WAHPETON 12.1 12.5 13.3 14.8 15.6 17.2 18.0
HICKSON 27.0 28.6 31.6 33.6 35.0 36.5 37.8
FARGO 26.4 27.7 30.9 33.2 35.1 36.6 37.8
HALSTAD 24.0 24.5 27.6 30.1 32.9 37.2 37.7
GRAND FORKS 32.8 34.0 36.1 39.4 42.5 45.6 48.8
OSLO 32.6 33.2 33.9 34.6 35.6 36.9 38.2
DRAYTON 32.7 33.9 35.6 39.7 40.8 41.9 43.1
PEMBINA 40.3 42.7 45.1 48.1